Polymarket has opened up betting on The Recreation Awards 2025 and nobody appears to have a doubt that Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 will take prime honors at Geoff Keighley’s showcase. The chances are so stacked within the French RPG’s favor {that a} $100 guess on Hole Knight: Silksong would web you over $1,000 if it truly ended up successful sport of the 12 months as an alternative.
Playing on the 2025 GOTY race opened up on Polymarket on October 29, nicely prematurely of anybody truly voting on what sport will truly win has even begun. The Greatest Recreation class is determined by media ballots (90 %) and fan voting (10 %) with the winner revealed through the live show on December 11.
Nominees are chosen in November adopted by a remaining spherical of voting. Whereas it’s Keighley’s present, he doesn’t take part in any a part of the choice course of. Additionally, full disclosure, Kotaku has by no means participated in voting and nothing on this article needs to be mistaken for monetary recommendation (that’s a factor you’re supposed to put in writing, proper?)
With all of these wrinkles in thoughts, the primary 48 hours of the GOTY race on Polymarket had been attention-grabbing to witness. Whereas Clair Obscur is presently main with bets suggesting an 80 % likelihood of successful, it didn’t begin out that method. It was truly Silksong who was the frontrunner within the preliminary hour after the market opened. Whoever was betting first should have been all in on the Metroidvania hype.
Nevertheless it didn’t take lengthy for the pack of frontrunners, which additionally included Loss of life Stranding 2 and Hades 2, to fall method behind Sandfall Interactive’s shock turn-based hit. All of these different video games should not presently trending within the single-digits. Silksong is second with 8 %, Hades 2 is third with 5 %, and Loss of life Stranding solely has 3 %. Over $75,000 has been wagered up to now.
From there Cut up Fiction, The Oute Worlds 2, Kingdom Come: Deliverance II, Donkey Kong Bananza, Elden Ring: Nightreign, and Blue Prince all have not less than a share level. Ghost of Yotei and each different sport that got here out this 12 months, then again, are all at decimal factors. Shockingly, there may be over $900 of betting quantity on Grand Theft Auto 6, a sport which isn’t popping out this 12 months. I assume somebody didn’t get the memo.
The Clair Obscur GOTY prepare retains chugging alongside
What can we make of all this? Bear in mind, prediction markets aren’t a sign of what’s going to occur, they’re a measure of what individuals suppose would possibly occur. The entire domination of Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 may imply that a number of individuals performed it and suppose it’s nice, or it may simply imply individuals who like inserting wagers on Polymarket are seeing how jazzed everybody else is in regards to the sport and making an attempt to refine that on-line noise into quantifiable alerts.
Polygon‘s Oli Welsh, who maintains a rolling list of GOTY frontrunners based on a mix of experience, vibes, and data, has had Clair Obscur in the lead for a while. Maybe Polymarket users are taking their cues from him! One of the only variations from the current betting landscape is that he has Yotei in closer contention, even if it’s nonetheless an outdoor shot. For those who have a look at Metacritic, nevertheless, Hades 2 technically has a better composite assessment rating from all the aggregated critics. These are the individuals who do a lot of the voting, in any case.
The precise mechanics of how varied retailers vote, from magazines like Recreation Informer to YouTube teams like Simple Allies, in all probability play a good larger position in deciding the end result than ambient trade vibes. Some ballots are selected purely by the top of these retailers. Others do casual inner voting. Some would possibly make selections primarily based on what they suppose is meant to be the fitting reply, similar to the Polymarket people are doing. Others would possibly resolve primarily based purely on what the most individuals at that outlet performed and appreciated. Usually ardour carries the day. 5 individuals actually liking sport X won’t carry the day in opposition to three who suppose Y is a very powerful sport of the last decade.
Will that messy, inconsistent course of yield Clair Obscur because the winner this 12 months? The customers on Polymarket clearly suppose so. We gained’t know till the paper envelope is opened on stage by the makers of last year’s winner, Astro Bot.
